Reviving the Anglo-Japanese Alliance: Britain Cannot Tilt to the Indo-Pacific Before Keeping the Eastern Dragon in Check
By Walter Lam
Date: 5 October 2022
The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force conducting amphibious raids and military operations on urban terrain during Exercise Iron Fist 15.
Courtesy of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (2015): https://flic.kr/p/r2xPbb
Greeted by a Royal Air Force fly past, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited his counterpart, then Prime Minister Boris Johnson in May this year. They agreed to a ‘landmark new defence agreement to deepen military ties in the Indo-Pacific’ among a long list of cooperation agreements. This coordinated response came against the backdrop of increasing threats to the rules-based international order posed by malign actors like Russia and China. In particular, China sent a flotilla containing its biggest destroyer to the Vostok 2022 war games, a live-fire joint military drill with Russia in the Sea of Japan in September.
China denies responsibility for escalating tensions, insisting on the defensive nature of its aggressive behaviour as a diplomatic gesture against the US and Japan’s ‘interference in internal affairs’, an attempt to tacitly establish Taiwan as its breakaway province. In reality, China is just flexing its muscles to intimidate Japan from defending Taiwan against its potential unprovoked invasion, just as it shot missiles into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone in August.
Honour Guard of the Taiwanese (Republic of China) Army marching into the National Dr. Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hall for the flag-raising ceremony.
Courtesy of Andrew Haimerl (2015)
For Japan, this is a matter of life or death. The defence of the two island nations is fundamentally inseparable, as the safety of Japanese citizens can be jeopardised even without China directly attacking Japan. Due to their close distance, essential sea routes and even parts of its outlying islands will be included in China’s anti-access/areas-denial strategy. This is not to mention other areal tactics like saturated missile attacks and cutting off undersea cables, all of which will have an equal effect on Japan regardless of its stance.
Furthermore, the Southwestern Air Self-Defence Force(SDF), Japan’s advance guard are stationed on its outlying islands connecting the Taiwanese island and Japan’s Kyushu. There is even a possibility that China will capture some of them to serve as convenient outposts to launch attacks against Taiwan as warned by Kishi Nobuo, Japan’s Special Advisor to the Prime Minister for National Security Policy. Such an incomplete control of the archipelago (including Taiwan’s fall) would leave Japan’s survival entirely at the mercy of China, who is now given the strategic option of island hopping to China like during WWII.
It would also compromise the First Island Chain designed to contain Chinese power projection within the islands. As China possesses 4 nuclear-powered Ballistic Missile Submarines(SSBN), allowing them to break through and hide in the vast pacific ocean would essentially consolidate the sea-based nuclear capabilities of a malign state, threatening open, liberal countries across the globe.
Indeed, Tokyo’s uneasiness is not ill-founded as the delicate military balance in the South China Sea(SCS) has been pushed to the verge of crumbling with China’s rise. Its military has rapidly improved not just in terms of size, but also by modernising based on the US model. The People’s Liberation Army(PLA) is now considered the world’s third strongest and almost twice as strong as Japan, but their disparity is more than just numerical.
The arsenal of newly developed Dong Feng series missiles has the speculated capabilities to pre-emptively annihilate Japanese and US military bases and warships up to as far as the Second Island Chain. Such developments have led Karl Thomas, commander of the US Seventh Fleet, to the assessment that China is now capable of carrying out a blockade around Taiwan. The extended deterrence traditionally provided by the US is quickly deteriorating, and Beijing will soon be very comfortable to launch its invasion.
Japan’s response is to push for its remilitarisation in the hopes of restoring the regional military balance, but there is only so much it can do alone. With a stagnated economy, an ageing population, a modest military-industrial complex, and most importantly Article 9 of its constitution, Japan will never suffice to deter China alone. This is why like-minded countries committed to peace and stability like the UK began engaging with the Indo-Pacific Region(IPR) to dilute and absorb the Chinese power, but more needs to be done.
Shandong, China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, in construction.
Courtesy of Wikimedia (2019)
Whilst Russia remains the obvious short to mid-term ‘most acute threat’, China is undoubtedly the more robust and difficult ‘systemic challenger’ to the rules-based international order. As the rising power, China no longer restraints its temptation to resolve international disputes through the use of force and coercion, and given its size, economic, and military capabilities, it has justifiably become the geopolitical focus for the UK.
As established by the ‘A-Very-British-Tilt‘ report by the think tank Policy Exchange, ‘uninterrupted free flow of goods through maritime trade routes’ in the IPR, is indispensable to the UK, but this would be impossible if China takes any regional military action. For instance, an invasion of Taiwan will paralyse trade with the IPR as sea routes will be cut off by blockades or are part of the warzone. If China realises its annexation of Taiwan and/or ‘nine-dash line’ territory claims, other than the exacerbation of Chinese nuclear threat, the East and SCS will become a de facto inland sea of China, putting the passages to half of the globe’s population and economic output in the hands of a hostile, authoritarian state.
The UK government recognises the gravity of the situation, having identified China as the ‘biggest state-based threat to the UK’s economic security’ and a need to invest in ‘China-facing capabilities’ in its 2021 Integrated Review. This coincidently plays into the post-Brexit Global Britain strategy, flagshipped by the Indo-pacific tilt ‘in recognition of the fact that the geopolitical and economic centre of gravity will have shifted towards this region by 2030.’ Yet to secure trade deals with the EU and US, opportunities offered here are needed by the UK more than ever, but they can only happen if Chinese expansionism is held in check.
Perhaps the more pressing aspect of the matter, however, is the UK’s role and duty as a ‘force of good’ and defender of peace and stability. The Chinese government has no respect for universal values as shown by its human rights abuses in Hong Kong and genocide in Xinjiang and Tibet, and its Ambassador to France Lu Shaye did not even shy away from announcing plans to ‘re-educate’ the Taiwanese.
Their preference for coercion and military resolution over the rules-based international system has also prompted increasingly assertive territorial claims now that they are backed with military might. One need not look further than Europe for examples of the atrocities brought about by bellicose autocrats too enthusiastic for militaristic adventures. If the UK is to truly champion itself with a values- and integrity-driven diplomacy, it is compelled to deter China from its unilateral attempts to change the status quo with force, even without factoring in the economic interests at stake.
Not all are quick to accept the tilt, but it fits perfectly well with the UK’s self-positioning as an ‘independent middle power’. The major scepticism lies upon whether the current UK can maintain a substantial presence from half the globe away, but under the current institutionalised and multilateral world order and via enormous soft power, the UK can still leave many positive impacts.
The HMS Queen Elizabeth Carrier Strike Group’s(CSG21) maiden voyage, a world tour visiting 40 countries and covering 26000 nautical miles, demonstrates not just hard power like blue-water naval capabilities, but also the diplomatic leverage Britain still possesses. The countless green lights welcoming the CSG21 to dock and supply knowing well it plans to sail through the SCS, which China claims to be its territorial waters, is a signal that the UK is the preferred regional partner.
This actually dismantles China’s loaded accusation of neo-colonialism, which came under the motivation of keeping the UK from the IPR to maintain its own hegemony. Colonising the IPR is neither feasible or in any means favourable to the UK, as the region is already commencing invaluable trades and trade routes crucial to its economy. The UK is not involved in border disputes with the region, and aggression would only lead to unnecessary losses. Outrageous claims of neo-colonialism are therefore nothing but China’s routine attempt of confounding facts to rally criticisms of the West by alluding to their colonial past.
Britain’s tilt to the IPR will need a good starting point and Japan is most certainly an ideal partner, as demonstrated by their heated embracement of the CSG21. Partaking in the same values and ideals as a liberal democracy and equally devoted to peace and stability, Japan makes for a natural ally, but the two have always shared an intimate relationship historically. Refusal to join the Triple Intervention and being the first Western country to form an alliance with Japan in 1902 has led to mutual respect and affinity since. With the new defence agreement in motion, history shall repeat itself, but not as tragedy nor as a farce.
British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth at sea along with the American destroyer, USS The Sullivans.
Courtesy of U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/US (2021): https://flic.kr/p/2m1n4qp
Liz Truss: ‘Deepening defence ties with Japan is an important part of our commitment to ensuring an open and secure Indo-Pacific and a clear demonstration of Global Britain in action. ’
The defence agreement defines Japan as the UK’s ‘closest Asian security partner’ and will see many areas for cooperation being undertaken. They can be categorised into three major directions: raising Japan’s defence capability, accentuating the credibility of the UK’s determination to uphold peace, and promoting interoperability between the two.
Japan is increasingly in need of asymmetric defence capabilities to neutralise China’s military build-up. The JSDF is outnumbered both in size and budget, and the gap will only grow with Japan’s severely aged population and a languish economy, but the UK can contribute to offset the disadvantage. The recently announced joint cooperation to develop the generation of fighter jets via pursuing joint technologies and developing sub-systems is a good example.
Integrated with Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) known as ‘loyal wingmen’, the sixth-generation fighter jet will possess state-of-the-art performance parameters whilst being optionally manned and interoperable with allied countries, allowing Japan to negate its inferior number of personnel. The Future Combat Air System program is therefore expected to secure Japanese air superiority, drastically increasing the difficulty for China to launch any amphibious assaults on the Japanese islands.
As both countries retain a similar level of advanced technology, by sharing and transferring experiences, data, and know-how, the time and risks of military-technology investment projects can be significantly reduced. Such a method of cooperation is hence highly effective and should be repeated in other areas where technology can complement personnel or directly replace the need for manual input to minimise the disadvantages of a small population.
On the other hand, it would be crucial for the UK to increase its presence in the IPR while being cautious of overstretching its resources and weakening its own defence. The Royal Navy’s permanent deployment of the River-class offshore patrol vessels HMS Spey and HMS Tamar in 2021 in addition to the CSG21 is ‘a clear demonstration of our commitment to maintaining regional security and upholding the rules-based international order with Japan’ according to former Defence Minister and current Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace.
Still, considering that China now holds the largest maritime force in the world, the small tonnage of the two ships is not enough to inspire confidence with allies. As the Navy beefs up its fleet with a £38.1billion investment plan, the UK will have more vessels on hand in the 2030s, and they should naturally be frequently commissioned to the IPR. Via active participation in Freedom of Navigation Operations(FONOP) and military drills in the SCS, the UK will gain credibility for carrying out its part in deterring China.
A 1905 postcard issued by the Mitsukoshi Department Store, celebrating the signing of the Second Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
Courtesy of the Mitsukoshi Department Store (1905)
Another crucial aspect here is the ensurance of interoperability, understanding the UK must work with like-minded countries to combat the enormous advantage China holds from its proximity to Taiwan and a strong economy. It is generally understood that ‘members of defense pacts that include higher levels of peacetime military coordination are less likely to be attacked’, since FONOP and drills also provide opportunities for participants to get to know each other’s command and control systems, strengths, and weaknesses.
This will help avoid chaos and enhance synergy, thereby providing both capability and credibility for deterring China. Working towards this goal, the Reciprocal Access Agreement is a solid step to enable the two countries to ‘carry out training, joint exercises and disaster relief activities’ together, as they cut red tape slowing down or preventing the transfer of personnel and equipment. Unavoidably, there remain problems to be solved with the likes of language and cultural barriers and different usage and control of weapon systems, all of which require a long-term commitment by both sides in capacity building, which currently still seems to fall short.
Interoperability and deterrence effects can also be promoted through bilateral and multilateral defence frameworks like NATO and Five Power Defence Arrangement. Unfortunately, at the moment Whitehall seems to only bear an appetite for such arrangements in the economic, and not the military sphere. This would undoubtedly be a missed opportunity to strengthen regional security and establish the UK as the closest European partner to the IPR, which has yet to develop its own NATO and therefore incapable of keeping its flashpoints in check.
Japan has been attempting to fill in the vacuum with increased engagement and cooperation with NATO on an organisational level, even attending the NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting in April and State Leaders Summit June this year. Withal, on a member-state level, NATO is still sluggish to make a sustainable and real presence in the IPR.
But even if Britain is still not ready for collective defence, it should consider the inclusion of Japan into the Five Eyes intelligence gathering coalition. Access to Japan’s speciality in collecting intelligence on the electromagnetic spectrum and its intelligence gathering infrastructure networks, which is one of the world’s largest and right next to China is simply too valuable to give up. The approach of putting Japan as a potential member on probation with the condition of patching its intelligence access into a more clear-cut and secure system would therefore create a win-win situation for both sides.
Containing China’s ambitions of expansion is no easy feat, but an important task nevertheless. It is both the UK’s duty to uphold the rule-based international order which it benefits from, and to fulfil its aspiration to protect peace and stability. Long gone should the age of gunboat diplomacy and power politics be, yet it is exactly what China is to its neighbours today, a bully. May we all learn from the resilience and valour Ukraine demonstrated against Russia, and China the lesson of foisting subjugation upon others with force.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attending the NATO summit in Madrid.
Courtesy of the Prime Minister’s Office of Japan (2022)
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